Python
179 posts
A College Football Season, Backtested
Best rating system, every bankroll strategy, one season of real moneylines. Thirty-six configurations, none of them profitable, and the reason why.
American Odds, the Vig, and Where Your Edge Actually Lives
Converting moneylines, finding the house margin hiding in a two-sided price, and what a model has to beat before it beats anything.
Introducing keeks-elote
Ratings produce probabilities, probabilities meet prices, and the gap becomes a stake. The interesting engineering is the seam, a time-ordering problem.
Ruin Is a Result, Not an Exception
If your simulation can end early, the ending is part of what it returns. Where to raise, where to catch, and why the difference decides what you can analyse.
What a Strategy Needs to Be Told About a Settled Bet
A staking strategy that cannot see outcomes is static whatever the class is called. The callback that fixes that has three decisions worth making deliberately.
What Fractional Kelly Actually Buys You
Betting half of Kelly costs about a quarter of your growth. Betting double Kelly costs all of it. The curve is symmetric and the risk is not.
Nine Bankroll Strategies Under Four Kinds of Stress
keeks v0.6.0 ships a deterministic risk benchmark. Nine staking strategies, four ways to make life hard, and the one that matters most.
When the Fee Eats the Edge
A flat fee does not scale with your bet, and Kelly sizes small when the edge is thin. The interaction costs more than either of them looks like it should.
Twelve Rating Systems, Walked Forward Through Eight Seasons
Do rating systems built for college football beat ones built for chess at predicting college football? Six thousand games, one week at a time.
Scoring a Three-Outcome Predictor
A rating system gives you one number, and a draw is a third outcome that number cannot express. What that does to your accuracy, measured on 40,000 chess games.