Kelly-Criterion
8 posts
A College Football Season, Backtested
Best rating system, every bankroll strategy, one season of real moneylines. Thirty-six configurations, none of them profitable, and the reason why.
American Odds, the Vig, and Where Your Edge Actually Lives
Converting moneylines, finding the house margin hiding in a two-sided price, and what a model has to beat before it beats anything.
What Fractional Kelly Actually Buys You
Betting half of Kelly costs about a quarter of your growth. Betting double Kelly costs all of it. The curve is symmetric and the risk is not.
Nine Bankroll Strategies Under Four Kinds of Stress
keeks v0.6.0 ships a deterministic risk benchmark. Nine staking strategies, four ways to make life hard, and the one that matters most.
When the Fee Eats the Edge
A flat fee does not scale with your bet, and Kelly sizes small when the edge is thin. The interaction costs more than either of them looks like it should.
Keeks 0.3.0: Introducing the Merton Share Strategy
Keeks 0.3.0 adds the Merton Share strategy with configurable risk aversion and maximum entry price calculations for one-time gambles.
Optimal Bankroll Management with Keeks: The Kelly Criterion
Dive into the Kelly Criterion, the foundation of optimal betting and bankroll management. Learn its theory, pros, cons, and implementation with Keeks.
Keeks 0.1.0 Release: Optimal Bankroll Management Made Simple
Keeks 0.1.0 is here! Python library for optimal bankroll management & betting strategies (Kelly Criterion). Includes simulation and visualization tools.